COL @ HOU
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Rockies @ Astros: Pitching Staff Woes Point to a High-Scoring Affair at Daikin Park

When two struggling starting pitchers take the mound on the same night, the conversation pretty quickly shifts away from dominance and toward damage control. Thursday's interleague matchup between the Colorado Rockies and Houston Astros features exactly that scenario, and the numbers suggest neither team should expect a quiet evening on the scoreboard.

Houston will send Ryan Weiss to the hill, and there's no sugarcoating what his 2026 season has looked like so far. A 7.36 ERA is concerning enough, but the 2.09 WHIP tells an even uglier story — Weiss is putting runners on base at an alarming rate, and opposing lineups have been taking full advantage. His last three starts have been nothing short of disastrous, posting a 9.00 ERA over that stretch. The Astros are essentially crossing their fingers and hoping for five innings of tolerable baseball.

Colorado's answer isn't much better. Juan Mejia carries a 5.40 ERA into this start, which might look passable at first glance until you zoom in on his recent work. Over his last three outings, Mejia has posted a staggering 11.57 ERA, meaning the Rockies' starter has actually been the more hittable of the two arms heading into tonight. His 1.80 WHIP reflects a pitcher who consistently works himself into traffic, and Houston's lineup figures to make him pay early.

What makes this matchup particularly compelling from a run-scoring perspective is the compounding nature of both starters' struggles. This isn't a case where one shaky pitcher faces a competent counterpart who could keep the game tight. Both clubs are rolling out arms that have been tagged consistently in recent weeks, creating a situation where bullpens could be summoned earlier than either manager would prefer. Taxed relief corps in a ballpark environment often means the scoring doesn't necessarily stop when the starter departs.

The market has set the total at 8.5, and given what these two pitchers have shown — particularly over their last several turns through the rotation — that number feels like it could be approached or exceeded fairly comfortably. When starters post ERA figures north of seven and WHIP numbers above 1.80, they tend to manufacture chaos rather than contain it.

The Call: With both starters scuffling badly and neither showing signs of turning a corner in recent weeks, the runs should come in bunches tonight at Daikin Park. Lean toward the over 8.5 in this one.