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Pirates vs. Cardinals: Braxton Ashcraft's Hot Streak Meets a St. Louis Offense Gone Cold

Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals | Busch Stadium | May 21, 2026 | 1:15 PM ET

There's an interesting tension at the heart of this afternoon matchup in St. Louis — a Pittsburgh offense that's been scorching hot colliding with a Cardinals starter who's been almost untouchable lately. Something has to give, and the story of how this one unfolds likely depends on which version of Dustin May shows up on the Busch Stadium mound.

Start with Braxton Ashcraft, because he deserves the attention. The Pirates righty carries a 3.09 ERA and a remarkably clean 1.05 WHIP into Thursday's start, both of which point to a pitcher who's been controlling games with consistency. Over his last three outings, he's been even sharper, posting a 2.11 ERA that suggests he's trending upward rather than regressing. Ashcraft isn't just getting by — he's limiting baserunners and keeping hitters off balance. For a Cardinals lineup that has averaged just 3.0 runs per game over the last five contests, a locked-in Ashcraft could mean another quiet afternoon.

The Cardinals' offensive slump is hard to ignore. St. Louis has been held to minimal production recently, and the first-five-innings numbers reflect the same pattern — a low-scoring trend that's persisted through their latest stretch. Whatever the source of the funk, it's real and it's recent.

On the other side, Pittsburgh has been a different kind of team at the plate. The Pirates have posted a HI scoring result in four of their last five games, averaging a robust 6.8 runs per contest. That's not a fluke — that's a lineup with genuine momentum, one that's been making life difficult for opposing pitchers up and down the rotation.

Which brings us to Dustin May. His season ERA of 4.81 and WHIP of 1.42 paint the picture of a pitcher who has struggled to keep the ball in the yard and baserunners off the bases. The encouraging note is that his last three starts have shown improvement, with a 4.00 ERA in that recent sample. May is capable of turning things around, but a Pirates lineup that's averaging nearly seven runs per game over five games is a stiff test for a pitcher still working through inconsistency.

The tension between Ashcraft's excellence and Pittsburgh's offensive surge, layered over May's shakiness and a dormant Cardinals attack, creates a genuinely competitive dynamic heading into the first pitch.

The lean here is to the over. Ashcraft may keep his side of it quiet, but May's track record against a hot Pittsburgh offense creates real scoring potential. The total of 7.5 feels reachable, with Pittsburgh likely doing the heavy lifting.