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Padres vs. Brewers: May 12 Matchup Analysis

San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers | American Family Field | 7:40 PM ET

When two struggling starting pitchers take the mound, run-scoring opportunities tend to pile up in a hurry. Tuesday night's matchup in Milwaukee has all the makings of an offensive affair, and the numbers on both sides of this game point in the same direction.

Brandon Sproat gets the ball for the Brewers, and while his season ERA of 5.87 is concerning enough on its own, the more encouraging sign for Milwaukee is that he's shown some improvement lately, posting a 4.61 ERA over his last three starts. He's not exactly shutting lineups down — his 1.53 WHIP tells you baserunners are still finding their way on at a steady clip — but there are at least some signs he's steadying himself.

The same can't quite be said for San Diego's Matt Waldron, who comes in with one of the uglier lines in the rotation conversation right now. A 7.71 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP paint the picture of a pitcher who's been hit hard all season, and even his last three starts haven't offered much relief, with that stretch ERA sitting at 6.00. Waldron is going to need some early run support just to keep his team in this one, and that's a tough spot to be in at American Family Field.

The recent scoring patterns only add to the intrigue. San Diego has been swinging hot bats heading into this one, averaging 6.0 runs per game over their last five contests and riding a two-game high-scoring streak. Milwaukee hasn't been shy at the plate either, putting up 5.8 runs per game over the same stretch, though they've come up short in their last two outings. The Brewers have something to prove offensively, and facing Waldron gives them a legitimate path to getting back on track.

The first-five-inning picture is a bit more tempered — both teams have posted just one-game streaks in their respective F5 scoring patterns — so the fireworks may not all come in the early innings. But with two pitchers who have struggled to limit damage throughout the season, it's hard to imagine this game staying quiet into the later frames.

Between a pair of high-season ERAs, a combined WHIP that won't inspire much confidence in either dugout, and two offenses that have been producing at a strong clip recently, the conditions here favor a high-scoring night.

The call: lean toward the over at 8.5. Both pitching matchups invite contact, both lineups are running warm, and there's too much evidence pointing toward runs to expect a shutdown performance from either side.