STL @ DET
Game Center

Cardinals vs. Tigers: Flaherty Gets the Nod, But May Is the Story

Saturday, April 4 | Comerica Park | 1:10 PM EDT

If you're looking for the most important number heading into this early April matchup at Comerica Park, don't start with the run line or even the weather forecast. Start with Dustin May's ERA: 13.50.

The Cardinals right-hander has been nothing short of a disaster through his first few outings of 2026, pairing that alarming earned run average with a WHIP of 2.75 — meaning he's putting nearly three baserunners on per inning pitched. That's not a rough patch. That's a pitcher who simply hasn't been able to get through innings cleanly, and Detroit's lineup is stepping into this one with a chance to take full advantage.

On the other side, Jack Flaherty isn't exactly inspiring confidence either. His 4.15 ERA and 1.85 WHIP tell the story of a pitcher who's been serviceable but hardly dominant. The elevated WHIP in particular suggests Flaherty has been allowing too many free passes and hard contact — giving opposing offenses chances to do damage even when he's escaping with relatively modest run totals. Neither starter here looks like a stopper, and that matters enormously when you're trying to project how this game scores.

The recent form narrative leans the same direction. Detroit has picked up some offensive momentum over their last five games, averaging 3.0 runs per game and riding a winning streak. That may not sound overwhelming, but against a Cardinals starter with a WHIP approaching 3.00, those numbers could balloon quickly. St. Louis, meanwhile, has dropped four straight and is averaging just 2.8 runs per game — a team that's struggling to generate offense and now faces a road start from a pitcher who hasn't given them anything to lean on.

The first-five-inning patterns add another layer to consider. Detroit has gone high-scoring in the first half of games, while St. Louis has now posted low-scoring first halves in back-to-back games. With May taking the ball in the early frames, it's difficult to see the Cardinals holding the Tigers in check before the lineup turns over.

Both bullpens will eventually factor in, but the damage in this one figures to start early — and it figures to start against Dustin May.

The signal here is clear: lean toward the Over at 7.5. With a struggling Cardinals starter gifting Detroit opportunities and Flaherty's own elevated WHIP suggesting St. Louis won't be completely shut down either, the conditions are in place for both offenses to contribute to a game that exceeds expectations on the scoreboard.