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Cardinals vs. Pirates: Montgomery's Recent Dominance Meets May's Vulnerability

PNC Park | April 27, 2026 | 6:40 PM ET

There's an interesting pitching contrast sitting at the heart of Monday evening's matchup between St. Louis and Pittsburgh, and it's one worth paying close attention to before first pitch at PNC Park.

Mason Montgomery takes the mound for the Pirates carrying a season ERA of 3.97 and a WHIP of 1.50 — numbers that suggest a pitcher who has been adequate but far from lights-out over the full body of work. What makes Montgomery genuinely compelling right now, however, is what's happened in his last three outings. He hasn't allowed a single earned run across that stretch, a stretch of dominance that tells a very different story than his season line implies. Whether that's a mechanical adjustment, better command of his secondary stuff, or simply a favorable run of opponents, the results have been hard to argue with. Pittsburgh's starter is clearly pitching his best baseball of the young season.

On the other side of the diamond, Dustin May arrives in an entirely different place. The Cardinals right-hander carries a bloated 5.84 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP on the year — the kind of numbers that suggest consistent trouble keeping runners off the bases and off the scoreboard. What's genuinely notable, though, is that despite his rough overall line, May has been considerably better recently, posting a 1.56 ERA over his last three starts. That gap between his season totals and his recent work hints at a pitcher who may have turned a corner, even if the broader numbers haven't caught up yet.

So what does this game actually look like? You have a Pirates starter who is running hot and a Cardinals arm who has quietly steadied himself in recent weeks. That combination might suggest a lower-scoring, tightly contested affair — and yet, the analytical indicators here lean toward the over on the 8.5 total. Part of that comes down to the fact that Montgomery's recent dominance could be masking underlying vulnerability in his profile, evidenced by that 1.50 season WHIP. Baserunners have consistently found their way on against him this year, and eventually, some of those opportunities convert into runs. May, meanwhile, still carries enough risk in his overall profile to keep opposing hitters engaged.

PNC Park plays beautifully in late April, and with two pitchers whose season-long walk and hit rates create genuine run-scoring opportunities regardless of their recent form, the conditions are right for the offenses to get involved.

The call here is the over 8.5. The recent hot stretches from both starters are encouraging, but the underlying pitching profiles throughout 2026 suggest neither is a lock to shut a lineup down for a full nine innings.