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Cardinals vs. Pirates: Tuesday Night Matchup Analysis

PNC Park | April 28, 2026 | 6:40 PM ET

There's an interesting pitching situation shaping up at PNC Park on Tuesday evening, and frankly, the circumstances surrounding this game point toward some fireworks on the offensive end.

The biggest story heading into this one is what's happening — or rather, what isn't happening — in the Pittsburgh dugout. The Pirates have yet to announce a starting pitcher, leaving a significant question mark on the mound for the home side. That kind of uncertainty almost always creates opportunities for opposing offenses, and the Cardinals figure to come in aggressive knowing they may be facing a bullpen game or a late roster decision from Pittsburgh's pitching staff.

On the other side of the diamond, St. Louis sends Kyle Leahy to the hill, and the numbers he's carrying into this start are not particularly inspiring. Leahy owns a 5.63 ERA and a bloated 1.67 WHIP on the season, meaning he's been allowing well over a baserunner per inning. His last three outings have been even more turbulent, with that stretch producing a 5.79 ERA — suggesting things haven't been trending in the right direction for the Cardinals' right-hander. When a pitcher is walking batters and giving up hits at that rate, opposing lineups tend to find ways to capitalize, and Pittsburgh's offense will have every reason to feel comfortable stepping into the box against him.

The combination of Leahy's struggles and Pittsburgh's unresolved pitching situation creates a recipe where neither team can feel confident about keeping the game low-scoring. A mystery arm for the Pirates could mean a fresh starter with limited data for hitters to work with, but it could just as easily mean a parade of relievers who are asked to piece together nine innings — a formula that historically inflates run totals.

With the total set at 8.0, the circumstances here seem to favor the over. Leahy's season-long and recent numbers suggest he's going to give the Pirates' offense something to work with early, and whatever Pittsburgh ultimately throws out there will be doing so under the cloud of uncertainty that comes with a late announcement. These kinds of games — where at least one starter is a known quantity on the struggling side and the other is an unknown — tend to play out as higher-scoring affairs.

The call here is the over. The pitching picture on both sides of this game points toward a night where runs come in bunches, and 8.0 feels like a number the offenses in this matchup can clear without needing anything extraordinary to happen.