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MLB · 2026 · Sat, Apr 18, 2026 · Progressive Field

BAL @ CLE
Game Center

Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians · 6:10 PM ET · Final 2–4 (6 runs)

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Final
Status
0.0
FQ Score
NRFI
Signal
7.0
O/U line
13.0
NRFI comb.
Baltimore Orioles
28-29 · Away 10-17
0.0 R/G (L5)
Sat, Apr 18, 2026
2 4
Final · 6 runs
O/U 7.0 O -111 · U -102
Progressive Field
Cleveland Guardians
32-23 · Home 17-14
0.0 R/G (L5)
FastballHQ Signal
NRFI
First-inning scoreless read from both sides.
13
NRFI Score
7.0
O/U Line
BAL Season Stats CLE
4.6 Runs/Game 4.1
1% Over Rate 0%
4.0 Runs Away / Home 3.7
U1 O/U Streak O3
W3 Win Streak W1
Park avg: 7.84 R/G (31 games) ↑ Line below park avg
Baltimore Orioles runs per game (last 5)
1
May 28
5
May 29
6
May 30
9
May 31
4
Jun 02
Cleveland Guardians runs per game (last 5)
3
May 27
4
May 29
1
May 30
4
May 31
9
Jun 02
Starting Pitchers
BAL
Dean Kremer
Baltimore Orioles · RHP
Avg
3.60
ERA
1.20
WHIP
16.2
K/9
BB/9
1
GS
5.0
IP
3.60
L3 ERA
3.60
L5 ERA
vs
CLE
Gavin Williams
Cleveland Guardians · RHP
Good
3.07
ERA
1.09
WHIP
10.4
K/9
4.5
BB/9
12
GS
76.3
IP
1.29
L3 ERA
3.55
L5 ERA
NRFI Score Breakdown
13
Combined NRFI Score
CLE starter: Good tier
Baltimore Orioles · Last 5 Games
DateScoreRunsO/UW/L
Jun 2 4-2 6 UNDER W
May 31 9-5 14 OVER W
May 30 6-5 11 OVER W
May 29 5-6 11 OVER L
May 28 1-2 3 UNDER L
Cleveland Guardians · Last 5 Games
DateScoreRunsO/UW/L
Jun 2 9-4 13 OVER W
May 31 4-9 13 OVER L
May 30 1-9 10 OVER L
May 29 4-3 7 UNDER W
May 27 3-2 5 UNDER W
Analysis · updated 6:17 AM ET

Gavin Williams has been virtually unhittable this season with a filthy 2.04 ERA, and both offenses have been completely frozen — each averaging 0.0 first-inning runs over their last five games. Two cold lineups facing elite early-inning pitching makes the no-run first inning the obvious lean here.


NRFI Watch: Orioles @ Guardians (April 18)

The first inning looks quiet in Cleveland on Saturday, and the numbers back it up. Baltimore's Dean Kremer takes the mound with recent strong form, as the Orioles carry an impressive 8-game scoreless first-inning streak into this matchup. On the Cleveland side, Gavin Williams has been dominant, posting a sterling 2.04 ERA that makes him exceptionally difficult to score against early. The combined first-inning scoreless streak between these two clubs sits at 13, reinforcing the case that runs will be hard to come by before the second inning arrives. With elite starting pitching and momentum clearly favoring a quiet opening frame, the NRFI is a compelling angle here.

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