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MLB · 2026 · Sat, Apr 18, 2026 · Fenway Park

DET @ BOS
Game Center

Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox · 4:10 PM ET · Final 4–1 (5 runs)

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Final
Status
0.0
FQ Score
NRFI
Signal
6.5
O/U line
14.0
NRFI comb.
Detroit Tigers
22-35 · Away 11-24
0.0 R/G (L5)
Sat, Apr 18, 2026
4 1
Final · 5 runs
O/U 6.5 O -117 · U 104
Fenway Park
Boston Red Sox
25-33 · Home 9-20
0.0 R/G (L5)
FastballHQ Signal
NRFI
First-inning scoreless read from both sides.
14
NRFI Score
6.5
O/U Line
DET Season Stats BOS
3.9 Runs/Game 4.0
0% Over Rate 0%
3.9 Runs Away / Home 3.2
O/U Streak U1
W3 Win Streak L1
Park avg: 7.24 R/G (29 games) ↑ Line below park avg
Detroit Tigers runs per game (last 5)
1
May 30
1
May 31
10
Jun 01
8
Jun 02
7
Jun 03
Boston Red Sox runs per game (last 5)
2
May 28
3
May 29
9
May 30
9
May 31
2
Jun 02
Starting Pitchers
DET
Tarik Skubal
Detroit Tigers · RHP
Good
2.70
ERA
0.95
WHIP
9.4
K/9
1.5
BB/9
7
GS
43.3
IP
3.32
L3 ERA
3.56
L5 ERA
vs
BOS
Brayan Bello
Boston Red Sox · RHP
Weak
6.46
ERA
1.74
WHIP
6.7
K/9
BB/9
6
GS
39.0
IP
3.18
L3 ERA
6.66
L5 ERA
NRFI Score Breakdown
14
Combined NRFI Score
DET starter: Good tier
Detroit Tigers · Last 5 Games
DateScoreRunsO/UW/L
Jun 3 7-2 9 NONE
Jun 2 8-0 8 PUSH W
Jun 1 10-9 19 OVER W
May 31 1-2 3 UNDER L
May 30 1-7 8 OVER L
Boston Red Sox · Last 5 Games
DateScoreRunsO/UW/L
Jun 2 2-4 6 UNDER L
May 31 9-4 13 OVER W
May 30 9-1 10 OVER W
May 29 3-4 7 UNDER L
May 28 2-10 12 OVER L
Analysis · updated 6:17 AM ET

Tarik Skubal's 2.55 ERA makes him one of the toughest arms to score against early, and both offenses have been completely silent through their last five games with a combined 0.0 runs in the first inning. The conditions strongly favor a quiet opening frame in Boston.


NRFI Play: Detroit Tigers @ Boston Red Sox

The numbers strongly support a quiet first inning at Fenway Park on April 18th. Detroit's Tarik Skubal brings an impressive 2.55 ERA to the mound, suggesting he's been tough to score on early. The Tigers carry a 10-game scoreless first-inning streak, demonstrating a strong pattern of avoiding early damage. Boston's Brayan Bello owns a concerning 9.00 ERA, yet the Red Sox have also posted three consecutive scoreless first innings themselves. Combined, both clubs share a 14-game first-inning scoreless streak between them. With Skubal likely to shutdown Boston's lineup immediately and both offenses trending toward quiet openers, the NRFI angle here carries genuine value.

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