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Marlins vs. Yankees: Eury Pérez's Recent Dominance Meets a Warren Under Fire

There's an interesting contrast developing ahead of Friday afternoon's matchup at Yankee Stadium, and much of it centers on the starkly different trajectories of the two starting pitchers taking the mound.

For Miami, Eury Pérez arrives in New York looking like a man on a mission. His season ERA of 4.25 is respectable enough, but it's his recent work that really turns heads — a 1.88 ERA over his last three starts suggests the young right-hander has found another gear. His 1.05 WHIP backs that up, indicating he's been sharp with his control and keeping baserunners to a minimum. If that version of Pérez shows up at Yankee Stadium, the Yankees could find themselves in a long afternoon at the plate.

Will Warren, on the other hand, is heading in the opposite direction. His 4.44 ERA is already a touch concerning, but his last three starts have been genuinely alarming — a 6.46 ERA over that stretch tells the story of a pitcher who's been hit hard and hit often. With a 1.37 WHIP, Warren is putting runners on base at a troubling clip, and against a Marlins offense that has been finding its rhythm, that's a dangerous combination.

Speaking of that offense — Miami has been the more productive team over the last five games, averaging 6.2 runs per game compared to New York's 3.4. The Yankees have managed to string together a two-game winning streak, but the run support hasn't been overwhelming. Meanwhile, the Marlins have also won two straight while doing considerably more damage with the bat.

The first-half scoring patterns add another layer to the story. Miami has gone over in three of their last five first halves, suggesting they're not waiting around to get on the board. The Yankees, by contrast, have been sitting under in their most recent first-half result. That early-inning dynamic could matter quite a bit depending on how quickly Warren settles in — or doesn't.

Taken together, the picture that emerges is one of an offense-friendly matchup. A struggling starter in Warren facing a hot Miami lineup, a market total sitting at 7.5, and recent scoring patterns that lean toward runs being put on the board — particularly from the Marlins' side of things.

The signal here points to the over. Pérez has looked sharp, but it's Warren's recent struggles and Miami's offensive momentum that make the case for this game producing. With the total set at 7.5, runs should be attainable, and Friday's first pitch could very well be just the beginning.