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MLB · 2026 · Wed, Apr 22, 2026 · Citi Field

MIN @ NYM
Game Center

Minnesota Twins at New York Mets · 7:10 PM ET · Final 2–3 (5 runs)

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Final
Status
0.0
FQ Score
NRFI
Signal
7.5
O/U line
15.0
NRFI comb.
Minnesota Twins
26-31 · Away 12-19
0.0 R/G (L5)
Wed, Apr 22, 2026
2 3
Final · 5 runs
O/U 7.5 O -116 · U 103
Citi Field
New York Mets
24-30 · Home 15-15
0.0 R/G (L5)
FastballHQ Signal
NRFI
First-inning scoreless read from both sides.
15
NRFI Score
7.5
O/U Line
MIN Season Stats NYM
4.8 Runs/Game 3.9
1% Over Rate 0%
4.5 Runs Away / Home 4.7
O4 O/U Streak O1
L1 Win Streak W1
Park avg: 9.07 R/G (30 games) ↑ Line below park avg
Minnesota Twins runs per game (last 5)
5
May 29
9
May 30
3
May 31
9
Jun 01
0
Jun 03
New York Mets runs per game (last 5)
6
May 30
10
May 31
2
Jun 01
3
Jun 02
7
Jun 03
Starting Pitchers
MIN
Connor Prielipp
Minnesota Twins · RHP
Weak
5.13
ERA
1.35
WHIP
9.5
K/9
BB/9
7
GS
33.3
IP
7.53
L3 ERA
5.55
L5 ERA
vs
NYM
Clay Holmes
New York Mets · RHP
Elite
1.86
ERA
1.01
WHIP
6.9
K/9
3.6
BB/9
8
GS
48.3
IP
1.47
L3 ERA
2.08
L5 ERA
NRFI Score Breakdown
15
Combined NRFI Score
NYM starter: Elite tier
Minnesota Twins · Last 5 Games
DateScoreRunsO/UW/L
Jun 3 0-8 8 NONE
Jun 1 9-6 15 OVER W
May 31 3-9 12 OVER L
May 30 9-10 19 OVER L
May 29 5-6 11 OVER L
New York Mets · Last 5 Games
DateScoreRunsO/UW/L
Jun 3 7-1 8 NONE
Jun 2 3-8 11 OVER L
Jun 1 2-3 5 UNDER L
May 31 10-1 11 OVER W
May 30 6-1 7 UNDER W
Analysis · updated 6:28 AM ET

Clay Holmes has been nearly unhittable this season with a 1.50 ERA, and Connor Prielipp brings strong minor league stuff to his MLB debut. Both offenses have gone ice cold, combining for zero first-inning runs across their last five games each. When elite starting pitching meets frozen lineups, the first inning stays quiet. Back the NRFI with confidence.


NRFI: Twins @ Mets (April 22, 2026)

The conditions are lining up nicely for a quiet first inning at Citi Field. Clay Holmes takes the mound for New York carrying an impressive 1.50 ERA, suggesting he's been dominant early in games this season. Meanwhile, Connor Prielipp gets the ball for Minnesota, and both clubs have been trending toward first-inning silence. The Twins carry a nine-game scoreless first-inning streak on the away side, a remarkable run of offensive patience or early struggles. The Mets add a two-game scoreless streak of their own. Combined, these two teams bring a 15-game first-inning scoreless streak into this matchup. With Holmes sharp and both lineups quiet early, the NRFI looks compelling here.

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