PIT @ STL
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Pirates @ Cardinals: Liberatore Faces a Pittsburgh Offense Finding Its Stride

Busch Stadium | May 19, 2026 | 7:45 PM ET

There's an interesting contrast developing heading into Tuesday night's NL Central matchup at Busch Stadium, and it largely centers on which version of these two offenses shows up under the lights.

Start with the pitching, because that's where this game's identity gets complicated. Mitch Keller arrives with the better seasonal numbers — a 3.59 ERA and an impressive 1.08 WHIP that speaks to his ability to keep baserunners off the bases. On paper, he looks like a stopper. But dig into his recent work and a different picture emerges. Over his last three starts, Keller's ERA has ballooned to 4.34, suggesting some of that surface-level command may be showing cracks. Whether it's fatigue, opponents adjusting, or mechanical inconsistency, the trend is worth watching.

Matthew Liberatore, meanwhile, has been moving in the opposite direction. His season ERA sits at 4.40 with a 1.51 WHIP — numbers that don't inspire much confidence — but he's posted a 3.78 ERA across his last three outings, which represents genuine improvement. The Cardinals will need that version of Liberatore to show up, especially given how their offense has looked recently.

And that's where St. Louis has a real problem. Over the last five games, the Cardinals are averaging just 2.6 runs per game, including a loss in their most recent outing. That's an offense running on fumes right now, and it puts enormous pressure on Liberatore to eat innings and keep Pittsburgh off the board.

Pittsburgh has been the polar opposite. The Pirates have averaged 5.2 runs per game over their last five contests and are riding back-to-back high-scoring performances heading into this one. That's not a team that's sneaking up on anyone — they're producing consistently and carrying genuine offensive momentum into a road environment.

The first-five-inning picture reinforces this narrative. Pittsburgh's offense has been elevated in that stretch as well, while St. Louis has been held down. If Keller's recent struggles continue and the Cardinals' bats remain quiet, Pittsburgh could pile on early before St. Louis has a chance to respond.

With the total set at 7.5, the over looks like the natural side here. Pittsburgh's recent scoring patterns are hard to ignore, Keller hasn't looked like himself lately, and Liberatore has enough of a track record this season to give up runs even on his better nights. Look for the Pirates to keep producing and for the combined run total to push past that number. The over is the play.