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MLB · 2026 · Wed, Apr 8, 2026 · PNC Park

SD @ PIT
Game Center

San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates · 12:35 PM ET · Final 8–2 (10 runs)

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Final
Status
-1.2
FQ Score
NRFI
Signal
7.0
O/U line
11.0
NRFI comb.
San Diego Padres
32-25 · Away 16-11
3.8 R/G (L5)
Wed, Apr 8, 2026
8 2
Final · 10 runs
O/U 7.0 O -114 · U 101
PNC Park
Pittsburgh Pirates
32-26 · Home 18-15
4.6 R/G (L5)
FastballHQ Signal
NRFI
First-inning scoreless read from both sides.
11
NRFI Score
7.0
O/U Line
SD Season Stats PIT
4.0 Runs/Game 5.0
0% Over Rate 1%
4.4 Runs Away / Home 5.5
U2 O/U Streak O7
L3 Win Streak W4
Park avg: 10.52 R/G (33 games) ↑ Line below park avg
San Diego Padres runs per game (last 5)
0
May 25
3
May 26
7
May 29
2
May 31
2
Jun 02
Pittsburgh Pirates runs per game (last 5)
2
May 28
6
May 29
10
May 30
9
May 31
10
Jun 02
Starting Pitchers
SD
Michael King
San Diego Padres · RHP
Good
2.76
ERA
1.15
WHIP
9.2
K/9
3.2
BB/9
11
GS
62.0
IP
2.76
L3 ERA
3.18
L5 ERA
vs
PIT
Mitch Keller
Pittsburgh Pirates · RHP
Avg
3.64
ERA
1.07
WHIP
6.4
K/9
2.6
BB/9
11
GS
64.3
IP
5.71
L3 ERA
4.15
L5 ERA
NRFI Score Breakdown
11
Combined NRFI Score
SD: scoreless F1 streak ×1
SD starter: Good tier
San Diego Padres · Last 5 Games
DateScoreRunsO/UW/L
Jun 2 2-3 5 UNDER L
May 31 2-4 6 UNDER L
May 29 7-5 12 OVER W
May 26 3-4 7 UNDER L
May 25 0-3 3 UNDER L
Pittsburgh Pirates · Last 5 Games
DateScoreRunsO/UW/L
Jun 2 10-6 16 OVER W
May 31 9-3 12 OVER W
May 30 10-9 19 OVER W
May 29 6-5 11 OVER W
May 28 2-7 9 OVER L
Analysis · updated 12:04 PM ET

Mitch Keller has been virtually untouchable lately, carrying a 1.50 ERA that makes a scoreless first inning highly likely. Michael King isn't far behind at 3.38, and with San Diego averaging just 3.8 runs per game over their last five, neither offense figures to strike early. Two capable arms keeping cold bats quiet — the NRFI has real teeth here.


NRFI Watch: Padres @ Pirates (April 8, 2026)

This matchup sets up beautifully for a first-inning scoreless outcome. Mitch Keller takes the mound for Pittsburgh carrying an impressive 1.50 ERA, giving the Pirates a legitimate shutdown arm to open the game. Michael King counters for San Diego with a 3.38 ERA, providing reasonable first-inning security from the away side as well.

Supporting the NRFI angle further, the Padres carry a five-game scoreless first-inning streak, while Pittsburgh has strung together two consecutive scoreless openers. Combined, both clubs share an 11-game first-inning scoreless streak from system data.

With Keller's dominance leading the charge, the trends strongly favor another quiet opening frame in Pittsburgh.

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